NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMOB 090914 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NW GA TO WEST CENTRAL AL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT FOR TODAY EXPECTED REMNANT SHOWERS TO THE N AND NE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING WITH SFC TO H8 RIDGE BUILDING WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC TODAY MOSTLY LIKELY BECOMING ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A GOOD SEABREEZE EFFECT FROM WARMER TEMPS INLAND (UPPER 80S) AND NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 75F. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWFA POSSIBLE NEAR WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT. /32 && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FIVE WAVE SCALE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS ON SATURDAY WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE QUICK GENERATION OF LEE TROF CYCLOGENESIS WITH MORE OF A DRY PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THIS PATTERN LEFT A STALLED FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT AND A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE POPS AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PORTIONS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT IS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT DURING WHICH THE 850 MB JET ATTAINS 40 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES RISING TO AROUND 200 M2/S2. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1100 J/KG. THESE PARAMETERS INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION. THE RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION MAINLY STARTS SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO 850 MB RIDGING WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND TENDING TO CAP CONVECTION...HENCE THE ISOLATED POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE DEEP SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE PLAINS. ALL MODELS STAY DRY SUNDAY NIGHT SO REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE TERTIARY SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29 && .MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SUB TROPICAL HIGH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WILL MENTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS DUE TO GOOD SEABREEZE EFFECTS SETTING UP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. BY LATE SUN INTO MON WINDS SHIFT WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS WEAK CANADIAN HIGH USHERS COOLER AIR TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SFC RIDGE RETROGRADES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY TUE GIVING WAY TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILD WED THROUGH EARLY FRI IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER TROF/SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY FRI EVENING NEXT WEEK STALLING SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING EARLY FRI CONTINUING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. /32 && .FIRE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY BUT THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE THREE DAY WINDOW FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SO WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 88 70 87 72 / 10 05 10 20 PENSACOLA 88 73 87 72 / 10 00 10 20 DESTIN 82 73 83 74 / 10 00 10 20 EVERGREEN 89 69 88 68 / 10 05 20 40 WAYNESBORO 90 65 89 68 / 05 00 20 40 CAMDEN 89 67 88 67 / 10 05 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 29 EVERSOLE 32 ESBENSEN
NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion